Brazil vs Norway: Brazil's defence vs Norway's attack in knockout clash
Brazil's solid form and stingy defense should see them through, but Norway's goalscoring makes over 2.5 a decent angle.
Today's Slate
Only one match on the card: a World Cup Round of 16 tie between Brazil and Norway at MetLife Stadium. Brazil topped Group C with 7 points, conceding just 1 goal in 3 games. Norway won Group I with 6 points, scoring 8 but also leaking 7. The market will likely install Brazil as clear favourites, but Norway have shown they can score against anyone.
Brazil vs Norway: Market Disconnect
Brazil's form (WWWD) and defensive record suggest they control games. Norway's form (WLWW) includes a narrow loss to a strong side and wins over weaker opponents. The fair line should see Brazil around 1.50-1.60, but the market might overrate Norway's attacking exploits from the group stage. Brazil's defence is a different level to what Norway faced. Norway conceded 7 against more modest attacks, and Brazil's front line should exploit that.
However, Norway's 8 goals in 3 games show they can trouble any defence. Brazil have kept clean sheets in two of three, but their last group game was a draw. In a knockout setting, Brazil's quality and experience should prevail, but Norway can score. This points to a high-scoring win for Brazil.
What Would Prove This Wrong
If Norway's defence holds firm and they frustrate Brazil, or if Brazil's attack misfires as in their draw, the match could be tight. A low-scoring Brazil win or a draw would undermine both picks. But Brazil's offensive firepower and Norway's defensive vulnerabilities suggest that's the less likely outcome.