Spain meet Argentina in World Cup final with rankings and data in focus

Spain and Argentina will contest Sunday's World Cup final, pairing the first and second-ranked teams in FIFA's men's world ranking and bringing together the reigning champions of South America and Europe.

Opta's supercomputer made Luis de la Fuente's Spain the favourites to lift the trophy, while Argentina were rated as only the fourth likeliest winners despite their ranking. Both that model and FIFA's standings placed England and France in the top four, a sign the semi-final lineup reflected the strongest sides in the tournament.

Where the final may be decided

Much of the pre-match analysis centres on Spain's defensive record, which has underpinned their run to the final. Argentina, by contrast, have relied on scoring at a rate above their expected goals (xG) — a pattern that may need to hold for at least one more match if they are to retain the title.

The fixture is notable for the ranking gap at the top of the world game: the two finalists occupy the leading positions in FIFA's list, leaving little room for either side to be cast as an outsider on paper.

Key points

• Spain and Argentina are first and second in FIFA's men's world ranking
• Opta's model rated Spain as tournament favourites and Argentina fourth
• De la Fuente's side have built their run on a strong defensive record
• Argentina have outperformed their expected goals during the tournament
• England and France featured in the top four of both rankings and the model

Sunday's final will test whether Spain's defensive solidity or Argentina's finishing above expectation proves decisive. Beyond the trophy, the result will shape the post-tournament rankings discussion around the two leading nations in the men's game.